One of the more interesting aspects of being fully immersed
in business, and especially in the financial space, is to observe the sheer
volume of words offered about what may or may not happen in the future. I have no idea what’s going to happen tomorrow,
so I’ll save you any prognostications I may have about it. In fact, neither of us has any guarantee that
we will wake up tomorrow morning. My
hope is that you are at peace about that potential outcome.
From a business perspective, it seems that what we are left
with is the opportunity to evaluate the results of our past decisions. If there are results we really enjoy, which
have delivered value to others, it would seem a good decision to engage in more
of the behaviours that led to these results.
If there are results that are less than stellar, the opportunity is
first to be comfortable enough with ourselves to admit such, and then to make
whatever changes are necessary. It’s not
too complicated.
I’m reminded of a James Stockdale quote from one of Jim
Collins’ books. Stockdale, who did a
tour of duty in Viet Nam, and who along with John McCain was a guest in the
Hanoi Hilton (look it up if you are unfamiliar), said that the first thing we
must do, in order to move forward in life, is to be brutally honest with
ourselves about where we are. Only then
are we able to begin to develop meaningful next steps which help us move
forward.
Warren Buffett has taken a similar approach. At the moment, I’m reading through a compilation
of his shareholder letters written between 1965 and 2014. He consistently refuses to speculate on the
future, other than to say that the following years won’t be as good as the
previous years. And, in his evaluation
of past performance, Buffett is generous with his praise, regarding the
managers of their various business interests.
He is also more than willing to point out poor decisions he and Charlie
Munger have made, and to suggest that shareholders be cautious with their
ongoing expectations.
Kevin Plank, founder and CEO of Under Armour, has been
interviewed numerous times, and is a sought after speaker, as a result of the
company’s (and his) success. He has
offered any number of insights on what and how.
In a recent interview with Fortune, Kevin said that there is no
substitute for action. In the same
interview, he also said the key to explosive growth was finding team members
who shared his vision. This reminds me
of something John Maxwell said, in his “21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership”. “The leader finds the vision, and then the
people. The people find the leader, and
then the vision.”
Danone, the French dairy company, with brands such as
Activa, Oikos, and Dannon yogurt, announced last Thursday that it will buy
WhiteWave Foods, makers of Silk Soy Milk.
The deal is worth $10 billion, with Danone offering $56.25 per share, a
24% premium to WhiteWave’s average closing price over the last 30 days. The deal is expected to close by the end of
the year, and will be debt financed.
The U.S. government, led by the White House, is proposing
that airlines begin service to Havana Cuba as early as this fall. We would suggest that these decisions are
best left to the airlines, without any “assistance” from the federal
government. There are many decisions
which are best left to private enterprise, without any meddling or interference
from the feds.
What we will never know is how much larger our economy would
be, and how much higher wages would be, if not for continuous meddling by the
government, attempting to fix things that aren’t actually broken. What resources could have been otherwise
deployed, what ideas developed, what entrepreneurs funded, if not for the
unnecessary extraction, by the government, of time, energy, and money, from the
private sector?
At the end of the day though, those questions don’t
matter. We cannot go back, and change
what has happened. What we can do is
either work to change what is, or work within the established framework. Opportunity remains, and in fact abounds. Choose to pursue and desire.
Quote of the week:
“When buying and selling is controlled by legislation, the
first things to be bought and sold will be legislators.”
P.J.
O’Rourke
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