Sunday, July 20, 2008

2028

What will the world look like in 20 years? Let's start these observations by looking at where we are today.

The U.S. is still the place to be, although that may not always be the case. America is at risk of marginalizing itself on the world stage if it doesn't address its legacy costs, shore up the dollar, find its own oil, and open the door to immigration. However, those immigrants must come to work, be productive, learn English and be U.S. citizens. There appear to be no leaders on the scene at the moment who are willing to address these issues.

Japan at the moment is dying. The average age in Japan is north of 50, and the birth rate is half of what's required to maintain a population.

China and India appear to be growing by leaps and bounds. Western Europe is stagnating, due to low birth rates, and a distinct lack of leadership. Where are the Churchills and the Reagans?

The Middle East is experiencing phenomenal growth. Birthrates are high, billions of dollars are pouring in from a world hungry for oil, and physical infrastructure is being put in place at an unprecedented rate.

If the issues mentioned aren't addressed, here is what we can expect to see within 20 years.

Japan will be a second tier country at best, with a declining population, very low property values, and a diverse culture. The diversity for the Japanese won't be a planned or desired outcome, but will simply be the result of needing to import workers from the Hispanic countries in an effort to maintain their economic engine.

The U.S. could well be a second tier country, as it continues to marginalize itself on the world stage. Three pillars have made America great. These are economic opportunity, political liberty, and religious freedom. It is very possible that economic opportunity will be taxed out of the country, a la Western Europe. The U.S. is a post-Christian culture, becoming less tolerant of open expressions of faith with each passing year. This doesn't bode well for the health of the country.

China may have peaked, and if not, it will peak within the next ten years. China must change its one child per family laws, if it intends to compete long term. Otherwise, it will go the way of Japan. Business costs on the coasts have been increasing to the point that they risk being non-competitive. Inland China has lower costs, but transportation to the coast cannabilizes much of the savings.

India could be an interesting spot to watch. Stay tuned for more on this.

Russia will once again become a dictatorship, and they are just a few years from making this formal. Putin and his allies are returning Russia to its early and mid twentieth century roots. Russia will also raise its head as a military aggressor.

Western Europe, without a new brand of leadership, will return to the Dark Ages. They will be, within a few years, approaching third world nation status.

The Middle East will be the place to be. The population is exploding, and the owners of the wealth are investing for a solid future. Substantial oil reserves will be found in Israel, making this country once again an attractive target for all sorts of evil operatives.

Iraq will be rebuilt, and will become one of the wealthiest countries in the world. The ancient city of Babylon will be rebuilt, and will rival in wealth and beauty anything ever seen in the world. Iraq will become a top rated tourist destination.

Iran will join with Russia to irritate the rest of the world.

Who country and person(s) will be the new world leader?

Stay tuned.

Until next time...

No comments: